‘Catastrophic’ report results forecast choppy waters for the NHS

New research from The Health Foundation, has found nine million people in England will be living with serious illnesses by 2040.

Despite the NHS facing immense pressures, the population continues to grow and age. Research, which was published at the beginning of the week, from The Health Foundation, discovered that the number of people living with serious diseases, such as dementia, diabetes, cancer, depression, and kidney disease, will rise from almost one in six of the adult population in 2019, to nearly one in five by 2040.

According to the report, cases of dementia are expected to rise 45% by 2040, heart failure by 92%, cancer by 31%, diabetes by 49%, chronic pain by 32% and anxiety or depression by 16%.

Experts have found that by the age of 70 people will have an average of three long-term conditions, rising to more than five by the age of 85.

Lead researcher, Anita Charlesworth, said: ‘The challenge of an ageing population with rising levels of major illness is not unique to the NHS.

‘Countries across the globe face the same pressures. How well prepared we are to meet the challenge is what will set us apart.

‘Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.

‘But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and has significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances.’

Dr Sarah Clarke, the president of the Royal College of Physicians, said: ‘The projections laid out by The Health Foundation’s report will quite frankly be catastrophic – for people and their families, for the health of the NHS and its workforce, and for the prosperity of the nation.

‘We know that much of this illness is avoidable – it’s caused by smoking, poor housing, unemployment, poor food and air quality, and obesity. We need a strategy that pulls at every policy lever available in order to build a healthier society and economy.’

Images: Artur Tumasjan and Andrik Langfield